China’s Silver Export Rules: Impact on India’s Market

Silver Shock in One Screen (2026 Snapshot)

If you’re wondering why India’s silver market feels overheated in 2026, here’s the entire story in one quick scan. These numbers explain the sudden surge in silver prices, rising volatility, and growing investor anxiety—better than any long explanation.

• Global silver price: Jumped from nearly $30 per ounce in early 2025 to $110–$113 per ounce in 2026, marking one of the sharpest rallies in precious metals history.
• Silver price in India: Climbed from around ₹75,000 per kg to ₹2.3–₹2.4 lakh per kg, making silver one of the most discussed commodities in India right now.
• China’s control: China controls roughly 60–70% of global refined silver supply, giving it enormous pricing power after the new export rules.
• Policy trigger: China’s silver export regulations came into force on 1 January 2026, immediately tightening global supply.
• Market reality: A structural supply deficit combined with policy-driven restrictions has pushed the silver market into an extended phase of high volatility.

 

 

This isn’t a temporary spike. It’s a reset moment for the silver market, where geopolitics, industrial demand, and investor psychology are colliding—forcing India’s silver prices into uncharted territory.

The demand in India’s Silver Market is increasing due to China’s New Silver Export Rules that came into effect on 1 January 2026. To put these new regulations in perspective, India’s Silver Market is buzzing as the price of silver has increased drastically to $110–$113 per ounce and locally in India, the price is ₹2.3 – 2.4 lakh per kg. India’s Silver Market is experiencing extreme volatility because of the new regulations coming from China. 

China’s implementation of the new Silver Export regulations is causing drastic price fluctuations in India’s Silver Market, leading to people wondering why silver is priced at exceptionally high rates, leading to increased demand from end consumers. 

China’s Silver Export Rules

China’s regulations on silver, tungsten and antimony exports has started what the Silver and Gold market in India has started to call, ‘An Era of Extended Price Volatility (AEPV)’.

To qualify, Exporters need:

- Proven track record (consistent exports 2022–2024).

- Huge production capability (minimum 80 tonnes of silver every year).

- Highly developed financials ($30 million+ in credit lines).

Smaller players? Basically locked out. China controls 60–70% of the global refined silver supply. In turn, this move efficiently directs significant amounts to China for its rapidly growing solar, EV, electronics, and defence industries.

Beijing calls it 'resource protection' and environmental strategy. Markets see it as strategic nationalism- even Elon Musk commented on it. He said, “This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes.” When the world's richest industrialist listens to the alarm, you know things are heating up!

Why Silver Was Already on Fire And Then China Lit the Fuse

Silver wasn’t sleeping before 2026. It has been in structural deficit for five straight years, demand outpaced mining supply for exploding green energy needs (solar panels alone gobble up ~20% of global silver). Combine this with investment frenzy, low inventories in London and COMEX, and boom prices doubled in 2025 alone.

Then came the China silver export rules. Speculators went berserk, fearing a massive supply squeeze. Result? Silver rocketed from ~$30/oz at the start of 2025 to record highs above $113/ozby late January 2026 a jaw-dropping 270%+ jump in one year!

In India, the silver price impact hit fast and hard. Retail prices escalated, premiums increased, and the purchasing of silver went into overdrive. Dealers noted demand was breaking records, people stockpiling silver before prices preposterously increased!

 

 

How This Hits India’s Silver Market Hard!

India is the world’s silver consumption powerhouse: massive jewellery demand (weddings, festivals, Diwali bling), bars & coins for investment and growing industrial use in solar and electronics.

Reality check time:

- India buys a lot of silver. In the first 8 months of 2025, India purchased over $7 billionworth of silver.

- China (plus Hong Kong) covered about 40% of India’s silver needs recently.

- Given the new China silver exportsrules, shipments are likely to slow, lead time to increase, and premiums to accelerate.

Silver supply Jewellers worry about margins being crushed. Suppose solar manufacturers have input costs skyrocketing. And everyday investors? That silver coin collection (dream) became a whole lot more expensive!

On the bright side, the Indian silver production (Hindustan Zinc is a big player) also gets a boost. Domestic recycling of silver increases. And the Indian importer’s aggressive buying (1,700+ tonnes arrived in some months) is not an indication of idleness; there is a good reason for it- they are fighting to get to the position they deserve!

What’s Next for Supply and Prices of Silver?

The silver market is going to be volatile. Prices are sky-high, and analysts have predicted that there will be a correction, possibly to ₹1.5 lakh/kg. Even though there will be a correction, the big picture will have a lot more pressure going upwards. There is an ongoing global deficit that will continue to grow, and if the exports continue to dip, it is predicted there will be a 5,000+ tonnes deficit. 

Silver is in short supply for solar cells and electronics. China is prioritising exports of its own EV and solar giants. More and more people are coming to understand that $100+/oz is not a wild prediction. In India, if the squeeze becomes more intense, the prediction for 2026 is ₹2.5-2.75 lakh/kg.

Silver market moves in India

In India, speculation around silver has increased over the last few years. 

- Investors: Silver ETFs or actual silver? With supply concerns looming, actual silver may feel safer, but consider the cost of premiums. 

- Jewellery & Manufacturers: Hedge smartly, take in domestic sourcing, price locking, and keep a balanced stock. 

- Electronics, Solar, etc.: Consolidate and diversify recycling and suppliers, especially in the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America. 

- All of the Above: This narrative isn’t over. In fact, it has just begun and will continue to alter the silver market in India for years to come.

 

 

Conclusion

The silver export regulations from China aren’t just new policies. They are transforming silver from a policy of ‘pretty metal’ to ‘geo-politically valuable metal’. India has both positive and negative consequences from the new regulations. Looking into the future, will silver prices decrease? Or will the prices skyrocket? One thing is for sure: it will be hard to take your eyes off silver.

Get ready for 2026 India; the silver story has just started. Will you buy silver, hold it, or wait for the price to lower? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

DISCLAIMER: This blog is NOT any buy or sell recommendation. No investment or trading advice is given. The content is purely for educational and information purposes only. Always consult your eligible financial advisor for investment-related decisions.