5 Big Factors - From Trump Tariffs to GDP Data: That May Move Nifty This Week

With how unpredictable the Indian stock market is, investors and traders should examine the Nifty weekly outlook. The Nifty 50 index is holding steady at 25,713, representing a 0.55% increase, which is encouraging. As we enter the week of February 23-27, 2026, the Nifty 50 index is increasing. With the Nifty 50 index increasing and a positive global outlook, we should see some improvements. With the Nifty 50 index increasing, it should increase the Nifty 50 index. With the Nifty 50 index increasing and a positive global outlook, we should see some improvements.

In the list of five things that may influence the Nifty, we will provide a detailed analysis and prediction of how each of the following 5 things (the impact of Trump tariffs on India and the impact of India’s GDP data on the market) will provide market insight. In each of these five elements, we will provide valuable insights and predictions pertaining to the Nifty index based on research available.

1. Trump Tariffs: A Reset in US-India Trade Relations

The stock market factors this week included Donald Trump tariffs. Recently, the US Supreme Court picked up a case concerning Trump's reciprocal tariffs that would settle adverse tariffs of around 50% on exports from India. Winning this case is a good thing, and in this case, Trump gets to set a 15% global tariff on imports from any country starting now after the reciprocal tariffs case is over.

The Trump tariffs' impact on India is mostly bad. First, the tariffs that will hit and the sectors will be textiles, pharma, and jewellery that minimally make up over 150 billion of India's exports to the US. There is an imminent Indian economic collapse, and India is losing its trade in the US. Recently, the Supreme Court has not seemed to be getting any better and protecting India puts the country on an upside tariff of around 11-13% compared toan upside competitor. Tariffs on China would be a good thing, and China is losing its trade with the US.

On February 23, both the Sensex and Nifty experienced a significant rise. Sensex surged 480 points and Nifty increased by over 25,700. The rise was attributed in part to increased optimism regarding the smoothness of ongoing trade deals. Investor optimism was also attributed to an interim US-India trade deal that was delayed, as it could mean a potential drop in tariffs to 18% for large Indian goods. 

If the negotiations do, in fact, go smoothly within the trade deal, then the Nifty index could potentially reach the resistance levels of 25,800-25,850. If, however, the President were to impose sector-specific duties like those pertaining to automobiles, pharmaceuticals, etc. then the Nifty index may go as far as 25,550.

These events exemplify the importance of monitoring global trade as it provides insight into domestic market trends, especially in consideration of the Nifty index.

2. India’s Projected GDP: Anticipation of Q3 Growth of FY26

India’s National Statistical Office is set to release GDP data for the 3rd quarter of the fiscal year 2023-2024 on February 27. This is also a significant date for the market, as this date is the GDP data release date for the 3rd quarter of the fiscal year 2023-2024. The release of a country’s GDP data is highly correlated with the country’s overall market performance as it provides the current status of a country’s economy. The release of a country’s GDP data also serves as a basis for central banks like the Reserve Bank of India to revise their monetary policy.

This week's release carries extra weight due to the introduction of a new series of GD with a new base year of 2022-23 for the calculation of the GD series for the base year of 2011-12. The new series aims to improve the level of precision for the incorporation of new data (for the first time in the Indian GD series) of double deflation to attempt to reflect the importance of the input and output prices in the manufacturing sector. 

The Indian economy is anticipated to expand at a GDP growth rate of ~8-8.1% for Q3 FY26 due to the growing demand of the economy, along with strong rural consumption and urban consumption after the festive season. Compared to the previous year, the second advance estimates for FY26 reveal that India's economy is expected to grow by 7.4%, which is an improvement from the FY25 estimates of 6.5%, thus consolidating India as one of the leading economies that are growing at a rapid rate.

If the GD figures are better than expected (closer to 8.1% per State Bank of India report), a bullish run would be anticipated with the Nifty crossing 26,000. For banking, auto, and consumer goods, the strong consumption and investment growth would be beneficial for the economy. In contrast, downward revisions for the GD figures owing to global headwinds or revisions in methodology would spur profit booking and the indices would see a fall towards 25,400-25,450.

As it relates to Nifty prediction, surprises in positive GDP data have historically caused increases of 1-2% weekly for the 4 weeks leading to the release of the data, thus the release extends the end of the previous month's expectations.

3. Global Impacts and Geo-Political Issues

Considering that global geopolitical dangers and risks are evergreen when looking at most avenues of stock market analysis. Issues in the Middle East and potential violence from the US and its allies towards the country of Iran worry most traders in the world. With the US's economic growth stagnating, with a 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product of 1.4, and a governmental shutdown, all of this together forms a risky environment for traders.

Oil prices have dipped slightly to $71.49 dollars for a barrel. If situations regarding the Middle East worsen, that number is sure to rise as oil prices are very volatile. This means that goods and services in India that rely on oil will become more expensive and thus harm the economy of India. This impacts the aviation industry and the paint industry as they are very oil-dependent. If these factors are present, oil-dependent services will negatively correlate with the Nifty 50. Ending tensions with the Middle East is a deflationary pressure loss, while a rise in unemployed US citizens is a deflationary pressure loss; the opposite is a deflationary pressure.

In previous weeks, the Nifty IT saw a loss of 2.07%. If global factors are favourable, the Nifty 50 will have a potential plateau at 25,700-25,800. If global factors are not in favour, the Nifty 50 will have a tight band of 25,380.

4. F&O Expiry and Market Volatility

As the F&O expiry is scheduled for 26th February 2023, there will likely be an increased level of market volatility, making it one of the fundamental stock market factors for the week. The India VIX has declined by 1.34% recently, although volatility will increase as traders rollover their positions.

Options data shows that there is a critical resistance level of 25,800, which will support some short covering and consequently some upside momentum to 26,000 if the Nifty stays above that. The support is at 25,570, which is the 21-day moving average. Additionally, SAIL's F&O placement ban for 24th February further adds to it and may emphasize the cash market.

In the expiry-driven trading sessions, Nifty usually consolidates in a fairly thin range, as it has previously demonstrated the NR4 type range, and as a result, price action becomes fairly indecisive. Close monitoring of the open interest jump will provide traders with the necessary signals, and if the market is above 25,800, then it will be bullish, and if it is below that level, then it will be bearish at 25,380. This single factor will add significantly to the volatility on that Nifty prediction.

5. Institutional Flows: FII Outflows vs. DII Support

The behaviour of institutional investors is still a key element of the Nifty weekly outlook. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net selling as they offloaded ₹934.60 crore on February 20 due to the uncertainties globally. Outflows and AI worries in IT have limited upside in the past weeks.

Yet, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have offset this by buying, in a targeted way, retail banks, metals, and infrastructure stocks, aiding Nifty in gaining 0.39% last week. Should FIIs become net buyers after clarification on tariffs or buoyant GDP numbers, net inflows would positively affect the Nifty. Conversely, selling can test support levels of the Nifty at 25,000-25,100.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) at 0.98 indicates a mild bullish to range-bound trend and hence the flows.

Conclusion

Focusing your attention on the five elements from the impact of Trump tariffs on India to the effects of India GDP data on the market, we can say it’s going to be a consolidating week with possible upside. Nifty is also expected to open at 25,550-25,850 and hold a bullish position. Anything above 25,800 would be impressive to reach the mark of 26,000. Clear data on GDP will also favour the position of the target in the trade talks.

DISCLAIMER: This blog is NOT any buy or sell recommendation. No investment or trading advice is given. The content is purely for educational and information purposes only. Always consult your eligible financial advisor for investment-related decisions.