India–US Trade Deal Boosts Jewellery Stocks — Is It Time to Invest?

In February 2023, India and the US entered into a trade balance agreement that impacts most export-oriented sectors and is particularly important in the gems and jewellery industry. With the agreement, the US reduces its tariffs on Indian exports from 50 % to 18 %. Export Industries that have suffered under the new protectionist measures will benefit from the new trade policy. 

The protectionist measures in the new trade policy have been affecting the gems and jewellery industry. The new trade policy will allow professionals in the gems and jewellery industry to benefit. Trade balance agreements are an important and impactful component of export-oriented sectors. Trade balance agreements positively impact gems and jewellery professionals and those employed within the industry.

The Indo-US trade agreements have those employed in the trade balance agreements positively impact those employed in the gems and jewellery industry. In the Indo-US trade agreements, there is a focus on the Indo jewellery sector. The trade balance agreements impact those employed in the jewellery sector, and that impact is positive. 

Trade Agreements Between India and The United States

President Donald Trump and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi conducted their first round of negotiations on India's and the United States' first trade agreement, which they finalised on February 3, 2026. The agreement allows for reciprocal exports and tariffs to be reduced, which means that Modi will pay $500 billion for the U.S. to remove tariffs on exports (including energy, defence systems, and technology) to India, which were recently set at 50% and are to become 18% on Indian exports going to the U.S. 

These trade terms were set because tariffs were placed in August 2025 that set the number of exports hurting the textiles, pharma, and gems, and jewellery industries, on the U.S. to India at a decreasing rate.

Particularly, the gems and jewellery industry negatively impacted the U.S. to India export numbers of $9.23 billion for FY25, which is 31% of India's gems and jewellery exports. Because of the drastic tariffs, exports were tracked to decrease to 44% of total exports to the U.S. Between April 2025 and December 2025, U.S. exports were tracked to be $9.23 billion, decreasing by $2.43 billion to $6.8 billion. With the recent tariffs, experts expect to increase the number of U.S. export patents in the upcoming 12 and 18 months by 10 and 15 %, respectively.

The Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) considers the deal to be vital relief, given that it will decrease costs for U.S. importers and increase demand for Indian diamond jewellery. Diamonds and perhaps other loose coloured gemstones could be eligible for zero-duty imports under Annex III, which enables even other prospects. This is more than just tariffs; it is the rejuvenation of an industry that is a crucial contributor to India’s GDP, employing millions, at 7.5%.

How the India-US Trade Deal Jewellery Boost is Igniting Stock Market Rally

The India US Trade deal jewellery prospects announcement has an almost immediate impact on share prices. On February 3, 2023, there was a significant surge in shares of gems and jewellery companies listed on the NSE and BSE, with many reaching the upper circuit limit. Goldiam International’s shares surged by 20 %, Vaibhav Global by 20 %, Kalyan Jewellers by 7.61 % and Senco Gold by 7.41 %. Other companies like Rajesh Exports also experienced a 20 % increase, demonstrating the strong confidence of investors in the recovery of exports.

Why such enthusiasm? With the removal of tariffs, export-oriented firms will now be able to make further profits due to the lower duty restrictions. Prior to this, diamond-encrusted products made in India had to pay a duty tax of 50%, which made these products unsellable in the American markets. 

With the new duty taxes set at 18%, Indian diamond-encrusted products are now sellable in the American markets. India may be able to recover the lost 44% in export products. According to analysts such as R. Ponmudi of Enrich Money, this will improve the state of the economy, particularly in the manufacturing sectors.

This also correlates with India’s determination to diversify its exported products. According to the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), the projected growth in exports for India will be in the fields of textiles, chemicals, and even jewellery. 

For the investors, this means that the operating revenues and profits will increase, especially in the publicly traded jewellery firms, in which 30-50% of their sales are export sales, and in which the revenues will also include the new projected increase in exports as well.

Analysis of Stocks in the Gems and Jewellery

Now let’s look at the stocks in gems and jewellery as we try and navigate the market after the deal. There are approximately 60 publicly traded jewellery firms in the Gems and Jewellery Sector; if you look at the NSE and the BSE, the average market cap of these firms is about ₹7,600 crore with a P/E of about 31.83; we will break down the top performers.

This jewellery stock analysis shows Titan, a branded retailer, and Goldiam, an export-heavy manufacturer. Of the firms analysed, Goldiam, with the highest export, will be able to benefit most from the India-US trade jewellery deal with an estimated increase in EPS of 15-20% for FY27. 

Risks include gold prices, which are at a high level and impact demand for jewellery in India. Titan, with watches and eyewear, has a diversified portfolio, but Goldiam, a smaller-cap, alongside Titan, provides a high growth opportunity.

Outlook of Jewellery Sector Growth in 2026

The sector outlook for 2026 will have the most growth from the trade deal and a positive domestic outlook. The current domestic jewellery value is $43.71 billion, which is expected to reach $133.96 billion in 2030, growing at 17.35% CAGR. Exports will experience the highest growth Year on Year after a dip of 14.94% in FY24, expected to be $37.97 billion in FY26 driven by the US market, while India in the same fiscal year will be around $22.27 billion.

Gold price fluctuations and volatility within the market have increased customer behavioural shifts from heavier pieces and Indian designs to lighter and international designs. However, India does have great export potential, plus the gems and jewellery sector is ready to grow significantly, especially with the newly lowered handicrafts and marble tariffs available to Rajasthan and for gems and jewellery, a new DD. 

Looking to the future, with the new agreements in India for 100% FDI and CEPA with countries like the UAE, the outlook is promising.

Is it a Good Time to Invest?

So, is it a good time to invest in jewellery with the new US/India trade agreement? Yes, it is a good time to invest in jewellery. However, it is also prudent to look closely because not all jewellery companies will benefit from the new agreements between the US and India directly. The primary beneficiaries will be the gems and jewellery companies that export, like Goldiam and Rajesh Exports. They will benefit from the new trade agreements with the US and India directly.

Investment strategies: Consider your risk appetite: Blue chips like Titan give you stability during the fluctuations in the price of gold, while the mid-caps provide higher returns from the recovery of the exports. It is also good to diversify in Kalyan in the domestic names, and the mid-caps focused on exports. The analysts expect a growth of around 10-15% in revenue, so it will be good to watch their earnings from the 4th quarter of FY26 to see the impact of the deals.

Long range, the projected growth is good, 6.5 - 6.6 % CAGR and a growth of USD 153.77 billion by 2033. Although some of the potential growth along the way will be impacted by geopolitical factors and the volatility in gold. It is also recommended to seek a financial consultant to understand that the movement in the trade deals in the equity markets will be more favourable for gold stocks than prior to the trade deals…

Conclusion

The India–US trade deal has reinvigorated the gems and jewellery sector and has also turned the period of decline into an opportunity. The jewellery stocks are on the rise and the jewellery sector is projected to grow. Whether it be an in-depth analysis of the jewellery stocks or tracking the impact of the trade deal on the jewellery sector, it is great to do both.

These stocks are expected to provide excellent returns as India continues to grow in its position in the global market. The expected returns will be pristine and the analysts expect a great deal of returns very soon.

DISCLAIMER: This blog is NOT any buy or sell recommendation. No investment or trading advice is given. The content is purely for educational and information purposes only. Always consult your eligible financial advisor for investment-related decisions.