Gold ETFs Surged 100% in January — Is This the Start of a Bull Run?

In January 2026, gold investors saw a huge increase in gold ETF inflows in India, increasing more than 100% from the previous month to 24,040 crore Rupees, right on the cusp of equalling the country’s first time for equity mutual funds. With the price of gold increasing 14% to over $5100 per ounce, investors saw the strongest gold ETF inflow month in history at $19 billion across gold ETFs worldwide.

This ETF surge has started speculation of a gold bull run in 2026. Everyone is wondering if there is more to this surge than meets the eye.

With this, we aim to further explain why gold is facing more investment than in previous years, the gold investment trend regarding the value of the investment, and a real breakdown of what is going on this year.

January Gold ETF Surge Startling Statistics

January 2026 will be etched into history as a momentous milestone for gold-backed ETFs. In India, for example, gold ETFs experienced their largest-ever 1-month inflows. The 1-month net gold ETF inflows increased from 11,647 crores (1.2 billion USD) in December 2025 to 24,040 crores (2.9 billion USD) in January 2026. This represents a staggering 106% increase in net gold ETF inflows in a single month. As a result, India’s gold ETF inflows for the 2025-26 financial year to date surpassed 61,000 crores (7.5 billion USD).

Gold ETFs worldwide also showed impressive numbers. The World Gold Council (WGC) stated that ETF investments recorded 19 billion in January 2026, with total assets under management reaching a historical high of 669 billion, and physical gold increasing by 120 tonnes to 4,145 tonnes. 

Also, a few major ETFs, including SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and Indian gold ETFs, experienced billions in 1-month net collections. In January 2026, spot gold also increased 14%, reaching record highs above $5,000 and even $5,110. The combination of unprecedented gold prices and unprecedented gold ETF inflows created a perfect storm of momentum.

 

 

Why Were Gold ETFs Gaining So Much Attention?

1. Geopolitical Crisis

   Investors chose safe-haven assets due to uncertainty surrounding fiscal policies involving the US and China. Due to geopolitical issues, gold has always shone due to the increase in its value.

2. Lower Expected Interest Rates

   There are expected cuts in the Federal Reserve interest rate. Due to lower expected interest rates, gold becomes more attractive. As interest rates decrease, so will the opportunity cost of holding gold, which yields no returns.

3. Continued Central Bank Buying

   China, Poland, Turkey, and India are Emerging Market central banks and they continue to increase reserves in gold. In January, the People's Bank of China added 1.2 tonnes.

4. Retail and Institutional Buying

   Investors who sat back and watched gold perform positively with a 64 to 70-dollar gain in 2025 now feel the need to buy in. The gold investment trend justified the diversification.

5. Fluctuating US Dollar

   Gold and other US dollar-denominated commodities had an increase in value due to January's sharp decrease in the dollar index.

Due to the previously mentioned factors, a gold ETF surge occurred.

Gold Investment Trend 2026: From Safe Haven to Core Portfolio Asset

Traditionally, gold has been viewed as a crisis asset, a possibility to use gold as a hedge against inflation. However, in 2025-2026, the narrative shifts once more.

The gold investment trend shows three clear pivots in the structure of the gold investment strategy;

- Portfolio Diversification

  Increase in gold purchases from the market by institutional investors to help balance their equity market exposure.

- Inflation and Currency Protection

  Gold purchases by consumers continue to remain high due to concerns of global inflation and the deflation of consumer dollars.

- Increased Retail Participation

  The middle class in India has been buying gold through gold ETFs for the purpose of keeping gold as an investment. The February and March inflows of gold equity ETFs in India exceeded 100%.

In 2026, gold prices are projected to be at an all-time high in the banking industry. Gold price projections in the banking industry for 2026 are priced at 5,000-6,000. Gold prices are projected in the banking industry to be $5,000-5,400 in 2026.

 

 

Will 2026 Bring a Bull Run for Gold?

Gold is already in a bull market, but whether January’s gold ETF spike is the beginning of a multi-year super cycle or just a continuation of the rally in 2025 is yet to be determined.

Bullish Case (A new leg higher is coming)

- Central bank demand remains record-breaking.

- 2020 ETF peaks show inflows are still low, even with prices rising.

- Gold, as a hedge, is still the ultimate risk with global debt at record highs.

- Via new supply constraints and mine production, gold discovery is rare.

Bearish Case (Consolidation is possible)

- From the low in the 2024 recession, gold is down by 80% and inflation is cheap.

- In a recession, quick inflation can stabilise the economy and increase the pressure on gold.

- After such a strong January, we can expect profit-taking to result in a 10–15% correction.

Most analysts are bullish but expect gold in 2026 to be more volatile. The gold bull run 2025 is likely to have structural pullbacks, but the odds are still in your favour for a structural uptrend.

Is Gold a Good Investment Right Now?

Is gold a good investment in 2026? Yes, but only if the following is true.

- Insurance-like holdings, gold should take up 5-15% of your portfolio. Never go all in!

- You’re going to want to dollar-cost average. You'll never be able to time the bottom, so just put in money monthly, and you'll invest in gold ETFs, which will smooth out the volatility.

- Focus on quality ETFs. Look at the Nippon India ETF Gold BeEs, HDFC Gold ETF, and SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) are the best ETFs in the world.

- Rebalance annually! If due to gains, your holding in gold is over 15%, cut back and put the money into equities or bonds.

No, if you:

- Expect 50%+ returns (that was 2025, not the norm).

- Expect to receive income often (no dividends or interest gold pays you).

- Don't put money into it if you'll be needing it in the next 12-18 months (there will be volatility you are not going to want to experience.)

Gold has historically returned 8-10% annually over the long term, which is respectable but not comparable to equities. Gold is invaluable in its ability to preserve your capital in a crisis, and diversifies your portfolio in a bear equity market.

Steps for Getting Started With Gold ETFs

1. Open a trading and demat account.  

2. Select a listed gold ETF on the NSE or BSE that has lower expense ratios.

3. Make a one-time investment or start a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP). 

4. Reassess your gold ETF and overall portfolio every quarter. 

5. For the sake of tax benefits, consider the combination of gold ETFs, sovereign gold bonds, and physical gold for emotional reasons.  

 

 

Final Notes: Position Strategically, Not Following

The January 2026 surge in gold ETFs is a result of changes in the underlying fundamentals. Gold is no longer seen as a fringe investment; rather, it is viewed as a critical component of an investor's portfolio. 

The divergent change in the gold investment trend has left no doubt. For 2026, most investors answer yes to the question is gold a good investment? Your expectations, your allocation, your investment vehicles (the easiest, most efficient gold investment vehicle is gold ETFs).

The January figures were clear, but trumpeting gold's value, the given world's uncertainty.  Keep it small, and keep it disciplined. Trust the structural tailwinds.

DISCLAIMER: This blog is NOT any buy or sell recommendation. No investment or trading advice is given. The content is purely for educational and information purposes only. Always consult your eligible financial advisor for investment-related decisions.